Calculate Implied Probability from Betting Odds
Convert any American odds to implied probability. See the true probability after removing the vig.
What Is Implied Probability?
Implied probability is the likelihood of an outcome as reflected by the betting odds. If a team is -200, the market implies a 66.7% chance of winning. If you believe the true probability is higher (say 75%), there is no value in the bet. If you believe it is lower (say 55%), the bet has positive expected value.
Removing the Vig
Sportsbook odds include a built-in margin (vig/juice). To find the true implied probability, convert both sides to implied probability, sum them, then divide each by the total. For -110 / -110: each side is 52.38%, total is 104.76%. True probability for each side: 52.38 / 104.76 = 50.0%. The vig is 4.76%.
Sharp bettors at Pinnacle Sports move lines. If Pinnacle has a game at -3 (-110/-110) and DraftKings has it at -2.5 (-110/-110), the DraftKings line likely has value on the underdog. Following Pinnacle line movement is one of the most reliable edges in sports betting.
