Sports Betting

Expected Value Calculator for Sports Betting

Built by Kevin Glover · @gloverbuilds · Verified formula

Calculate whether a bet has positive expected value (+EV). The single most important concept in profitable betting.

📅 Updated April 2026 ✅ Formula verified 📖 4 min read 🆓 Free · No sign-up

In this article

What Is Expected Value?
Why EV Is the Only Thing That Matters

Erwartungswert

EV = (Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit × Gewinn) - (Verlustwahrscheinlichkeit × Einsatz). Wette bei Quote 3,00 mit 40% Wahrscheinlichkeit: EV = (0,40 × 200) - (0,60 × 100) = +20 € pro 100 € Einsatz. Positiver EV = langfristig profitabel.

EV+ Ist Alles

Wer konstant EV+-Wetten mit 3-5% findet, ist langfristig profitabel — unabhängig von Einzelergebnissen.

⚡ CalcWolf Insight

Closing Line Value (CLV) is the best predictor of long-term profitability. If you consistently bet lines that move in your direction by closing time (e.g., you bet +150 and it closes at +130), you are almost certainly a +EV bettor — regardless of short-term results.

Frequently asked questions

Was ist eine Valuewette?▾

Ihre Einschätzung der Wahrscheinlichkeit ist höher als die implizierte Quote. Dann: EV+.

Wie berechnen?▾

(Wahrscheinlichkeit × Nettogewinn) - (Gegenwahrscheinlichkeit × Einsatz). Positiv = gute Wette.

✓ Math logic verified against primary sources → See our verification process

Kevin Glover · @gloverbuilds

Founder, CalcWolf · GLVTS · Blickr

All formulas sourced from primary references — IRS publications, peer-reviewed research, and official standards. Results are tested against independent reference calculators before publishing. Rates and brackets updated when official sources change. Editorial policy →