Expected Value Calculator for Sports Betting
Calculate whether a bet has positive expected value (+EV). The single most important concept in profitable betting.
What Is Expected Value?
Expected value (EV) is the average amount you expect to win or lose per bet over the long run. The formula: EV = (Win Probability × Profit) - (Loss Probability × Stake). A +EV bet is one where you expect to make money over time. A -EV bet loses money over time. Every single bet placed at a sportsbook at standard odds (-110) without an edge is -EV.
Why EV Is the Only Thing That Matters
You can lose 10 +EV bets in a row and still be making the right decisions. You can win 10 -EV bets in a row and still be making the wrong decisions. Short-term results are noise. EV is the signal. Professional bettors track their expected value per bet, not their win-loss record. A bettor placing +3% EV bets consistently will be profitable over any sufficiently long sample.
Closing Line Value (CLV) is the best predictor of long-term profitability. If you consistently bet lines that move in your direction by closing time (e.g., you bet +150 and it closes at +130), you are almost certainly a +EV bettor — regardless of short-term results.
