Sports Betting
Kelly Criterion — Optimal Bet Sizing
Calculate the mathematically optimal bet size based on your edge and bankroll. Used by professional bettors and investors.
In this article
Formula
f* = (b×p - q) / b। b = odds-1, p = win probability, q = 1-p। Odds 3.00 (b=2), 40% probability: f* = (2×0.4-0.6)/2 = 10%। Full Kelly too aggressive — use 1/4 to 1/2 Kelly।
Fractional
Quarter Kelly: less variance, 75%+ optimal growth। Perfect for cricket betting where estimation errors are common।
⚡ CalcWolf Insight
The single biggest mistake in sports betting is bet sizing, not pick selection. A bettor who picks 55% winners but uses proper Kelly sizing will outperform a bettor who picks 58% winners but bets randomly. Bankroll management is the only sustainable edge.
Frequently asked questions
Kelly क्या है?▾
Long-term bankroll maximize करने का optimal bet size formula।
Full Kelly?▾
Too risky। 1/4 to 1/2 Kelly safer and almost as effective।
✓ Math logic verified against primary sources
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